Monday, April 20, 2009

The forest not the trees

The Obama proudly proclaims he has given us a middle class tax cut and that he will cut the deficit by 50% by the end of his term. Each of these things is true and each of these promises contains a lie.

The Obama is fond of mentioning the tax cut he gave 95% of Americans, as if it answers all the complaints about high taxes. We are not supposed to realize that this tax cut is tiny and the mountain of deficit spending he has built will cause massive tax increases in the future under nearly all scenarios. Look at the situation in California as an example of our future. They reached an agreement to close the 40 billion dollar deficit just to discover that they are still 8 billion short. They are short because tax revenues are falling faster than they could cut spending and raise taxes. The same thing is playing out on a national stage, federal tax reciepts are plundging, yet no one is supposed to notice. If you do the Obama will reprimand you publicly. Send the tea party protester away! I gave him a tax cut! Its true he gave us a tax cut its a lie that our taxes are going down.

The lynch pin to his plan to cut the budget in half by the end of his term is the 4% GDP growth rate he has penciled in for our economy. No one that I can find beyond his staff believes the economy can grow at 4%. It is exceptional to see that in the best of times. Now , damaged by a banking crisis and a severe recession that has substantial unemployment he expects 4% GDP growth. The reality is we won't come close to that figure and the deficit will explode like an atomic debt bomb. For now its the Obamas dirty little secret. Later it will be our nations shame.

Still it may be possible that he succeeds in cutting the deficit in half (under nearly perfect conditions) but the question is half of what? Half of Bush's $500 Billion deficit that Democrat's screamed about for years? No ! Half of the current $1.7 Trillion deficit? No! It will be a nearly $4 trillion deficit that he will cut in half. We couldn't live with $500 billion of debt so we voted Bush out. Now the Obama will nearly quadruple it and we are delighted that at least he kept his promise and cut it in half to just $2 trillion. His next lie is in the making now. He is looking to reduce government programs to the tune of $100 million. With this in place he will shout I cut taxes! I cut government spending and waste! I cut the deficit in half! Which will all be true is some insignificant way and will all be bold lies in the ways that matter most.
DJH

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